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Industry: The worry about the imbalance between supply and demand still exists, and there is limited room for alumina futures to continue to fall. Since the intraday record of 5,540 yuan/ton on December 5, the main contract price of domestic alumina futures has started to fluctuate and fall, reaching a minimum of 5,077 yuan/ton on December 12, with the cumulative maximum decline exceeding 8%. According to industry insiders, the increase of alumina registered delivery brands and the sharp drop in overseas alumina spot quotations have led to the recent decline in alumina futures prices. Although the short-term news in the market is intertwined, the imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina market has not fundamentally improved, so there is limited room for the subsequent decline of alumina futures prices. (CSI)Fitch: It is estimated that the sales growth rate of food, beverage, tobacco and consumer goods will be in low single digits in 2025.Goldman Sachs: Two situations support the view that the reserve price of Brent crude oil is $70. Goldman Sachs: We find that when the price of Brent crude oil falls to the range of $60/barrel, the supply response measures of the United States will increase, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tends to extend the production reduction around the current price level, which supports our view that the reserve price of Brent crude oil is $70/barrel.

New york Federal Reserve: Michelle Neal, the marketing department, resigned and will officially leave on March 25th, 2025. Neal will be a senior consultant until she leaves the bank, and she will return to work in the private sector. Anna Nordstrom will be the temporary marketing director until Neal leaves.Economic Daily: Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment, the article said, "Experts believe that unconventional countercyclical adjustment pays attention to forward-looking and is ahead of expectations, which is conducive to stabilizing expectations and stabilizing total demand, thus consolidating the foundation for economic recovery. Unconventional countercyclical adjustment, fiscal policy will further exert its strength, which may be reflected in: actively using the deficit space that can be improved, increasing the scale of special bonds, and continuing to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds. On the one hand, the scale may exceed expectations, on the other hand, the pace will be faster, and the economy will be stabilized and rebounded. The formulation of monetary policy is changed from "steady" to "moderately loose", which is intended to convey a positive and promising policy tendency more clearly and better stabilize the expectations of business entities.New Zealand's manufacturing performance index in November was 45.5, with the previous value of 45.8.

According to the medical report, Brazilian President Lula removed the drainage tube from his head at night and is still in the intensive care unit. Lula is still conscious and speaks normally.The balance of A-share financing reached a new high of more than 9 years. According to Wind data, as of December 11th, the balance of A-share market financing reached 1,875.85 billion yuan, a new high of more than 9 years. In the first three trading days of this week, the financing balance "increased three times in a row", with a cumulative increase of 22.579 billion yuan. Analysts believe that short-term ample liquidity and optimistic policy expectations are still the main support of the market. In the medium and long term, the A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward under the dual promotion of policy expectations and economic trends. (china securities journal)Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan: The conditions of "transformation cattle" in China stock market are forming four themes, focusing on mergers and acquisitions and self-control. Fang Yi, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Strategy, said at the main forum of Guotai Junan 2025 investment strategy that the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions of "transformation cattle" are forming; The key driving force of the market comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference, and the economic expectation is expected to be revised up in 2025H2; The mid-line of the stock market is expected to get out of the N-rhythm. Theme recommendation: merger and reorganization/self-control/humanoid robot/self-consumption. 1) M&A and reorganization: the regulatory tolerance of cross-border M&A and acquisition of unprofitable assets has been improved, and we are optimistic about the traditional industry leaders who are the main enterprises of science and technology chain and benefit from the optimization of industry structure; 2) Self-control: global science and technology supply chain reconstruction, optimistic about the improvement of localization rate of advanced semiconductors/basic software; 3) Humanoid robot: mass production and application scenario expansion are accelerated, and key components such as dexterous hands/actuators are optimistic; 4) Self-satisfaction consumption: demographic changes have given birth to new consumption patterns, and we are optimistic about the high growth of secondary consumption/pet consumption.